March 18, 2026
Filed under: Business Owners, General
Across the investment community, two influential essays have sparked debate by offering opposite visions of what rapid AI progress could mean for the global economy by 2028. Both assume AI improves extremely quickly—but they diverge on whether this creates an economic boom or a destabilizing crisis.
1. The Optimistic View: “The 2028 Global Intelligence Boom” (Michael Bloch)
Michael Bloch argues that abundant AI will supercharge productivity and create a deflationary boom, not an economic collapse. His thesis: when AI makes many services dramatically cheaper—legal, accounting, marketing, software development—consumer purchasing power increases, enabling more entrepreneurship, innovation, and economic dynamism.
- Services deflation (8–12% annually) in many white-collar categories as AI handles routine complexity at near-zero marginal cost.
- Rising real incomes because consumers pay much less for essential professional services.
- New business formation expands, as lower-cost intelligence removes barriers to launching companies.
- Productivity gains become broadly beneficial, not concentrated only among tech owners.
In this view, AI represents a force for widespread prosperity, similar to past technological revolutions.
2. The Pessimistic View: “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” (Citrini Research)
Citrini Research presents a scenario—not a prediction—where AI’s success triggers an economic downturn rather than a boom. Their model shows rapid automation producing “Ghost GDP”: output rises, but human wages and consumption collapse because AI generates productivity without generating household income.
- Mass white-collar displacement as AI substitutes for human intelligence, pushing skilled workers into lower-wage roles.
- 10.2% unemployment and a 38% peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500 as consumption weakens and corporate earnings deteriorate.
- Ghost GDP: strong productivity and corporate profits that fail to circulate through the real economy.
- Death of SaaS (software as a service) and IT services as AI agents allow companies to replicate software internally, threatening industries built on labor-priced intelligence.
- Financial contagion risk as layoffs, reduced wages, and sector declines ripple into credit markets.
In this scenario, being “hyper-bullish on AI” paradoxically becomes “structurally bearish on the economy”.
lisa